Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
